Horserace08

Horserace has moved.

2006-09-03T19:54:00.000-05:00

Horserace08 has moved, and the ECS went with it. You can find it at www.horserace08.com

A new ECS is currently under production.

www.horserace08.com

Jumbo Jet vs People on the Beach

2006-07-22T16:01:00.000-05:00


This is video footage of a plane taking off at the Princess Juliana Airport at St Maarten. Look at what happens to the people on the beach.

ECS coming back

2006-06-27T23:17:00.000-05:00

I'm sure I've lost the 10 readers that I developed back in the fall of 2005. But, if anyone is out there, I want you to know that I am working on bringing back the ECS (Election Championship Series). I'll keep you updated.

Russ is Ready

2006-06-27T18:20:00.000-05:00

Evaluating Russ Feingold's recent Senate activity, it is plain to see what he getting ready for...2008. He's sponsored a number of bills which would have prohibited raising salaries for members of Congress (S.60) and called for more efficiency in government health care programs (S.123). He's also been true to his Democratic base by sponsoring bills calling for a timeframe for troop withdrawal (S.RES. 171) and the abolition of racial profiling (S.2138).

His work on lobbying and campaign finance reform puts him in a unique position to claim a democratic moral high-ground as long as he's careful about where his war chest comes from.

Conventional wisdom dictates that in the post-Dixiecrat age, it is impossible for a non-Southern Democrat to win the White House because of the South's pension for voting as a block (and never for Northerners). Well, this may be true, but Feingold is positioning himself to steal at least three states (LA, MS & AL) with the 'Hurricane Katrina and Bankruptcy Relief and Community Protection Act' (S.1647) which he sponsored--which I can tell you that us folks on the Gulf Coast are well aware of the big screwing we're getting in DC in light of the 'you can't trust those corrupt coon-asses with money' argument.

To sum it up, Feingold is ready to burn through the primaries by saying that he is every bit the liberal Democrat that Hillary is, and he has the voting record to prove it. If he's pinned down by a heavily funded opposition campaign, he can try to remind people through free-media that he's worked to stop soft-money, lobbying, and a for-profit government. In a general election, he can tap into that nouveau 'Support the Troops, not the War' sentiment that seems to be going around by pointing to his record on the war. Then, if there is time for offensive thinking, he can blast Republicans for being the party of a big police-state government these days by referencing his work against the Patriot Act and expansive spending.

He seems ready to go, and I think we can all agree that this man is dying for the race to get going. He's played his cards better than the other Democratic contenders in the last 3 years or so.

ECS for December 14, 2005

2005-12-14T02:45:00.000-06:00

It's Wednesday, and that means the latest edition of the Election Championship Series is ready:

Democrats

1.Hillary Rodham-Clinton (0.61)
1.Mark Warner (0.61)
3.John Kerry (0.31)
4.Evan Bayh (0.24)
5.John Edwards (0.17)
6.Bill Richardson (0.11)
7.Tom Vilsack (0.10)
8.Wesley Clark (0.09)
9.Russ Feingold (0.08)
10.Joe Biden (0.07)
10.Jon Corzine (0.07)

Republicans

1.Bill Frist (0.98)
2.John McCain (0.80)
3.Rudy Giuliani (0.54)
4.Condi Rice (0.45)
5.George Allen (0.41)
6.Jeb Bush (0.31)
6.Newt Gingrich (0.31)
8.Chuck Hagel (0.29)
9.Mike Huckabee (0.25)
10.Mitt Romney (0.23)

A couple of interesting developments include Mark Warner's jump to a tie with Hillary Clinton after his $2.5M fundraising event which not only helped him in the “PAC cash in bank” and “PAC money raised” categories, but also gave him significant blogging attention. Other than that, Kerry overtook Bayh, and Biden is making his first appearance on the list with his tie at 10th with Corzine--who is falling. Also, if you compare the power points (the number in parentheses next to the name) from this week to those of last week, you'll notice that the Democratic rankings are becoming lower suggesting a closer race than last week.

In the Republican list, you'll notice that Gingrich pulled ahead of Hagel. Other than that, there have been no major developments. Bill Frist is still sweeping the list with his huge war chest.

See Inaugural ECS for notes on how the rankings are calculated.

What is McCain doing?

2005-12-13T20:48:00.000-06:00

While Arizona Senator John McCain seems to be on the rise in public opinion due to his advocacy against pork spending, all forms of torture and humiliation, and staunchly social conservative judges, not everyone is pleased with his political alignment. In fact, his positions seem to be quickly making him a candidate for the same obstructionist-like status that sunk former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. On Powerline, for example, Paul Mirengoff criticized the Senator for not being enough of a 'hardcore' conservative:

...McCain wasn't hardcore when he joined the gang of 14, thus effectively sinking the prospects of several outstanding conservative nominees for the court of appeals. Nor, in my view, is he hardcore in the war on terror when he advocates blanket "anti-torture" policies that would limit the government's ability to obtain information from terrorists.

There are other McCain stances that many conservatives are taking issue with like his participation in the 'Global Warming Awareness Tour' with Hillary Clinton and the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reforms which some consider unconstitutional. And, Second Amendment advocacy groups rate McCain low on his views of gun rights. So, the question is will McCain represent a real option for the Republican Party in 2008? Will he be able to garner support from the social conservative groups that seem necessary in order to win the Republican nomination? And, does it even matter? Some are saying Republicans will have no other choice if they want to retain the White House for another four years. According to sources at anklebitingpundits.com, “The national environment has gone to s—t and Republicans are going to take a beating in 2006. McCain is the only guy out there with the credibility to maintain Republican control in Washington.” This seems to be consistent with the local media coverage he received after a recent visit to Austin where the local newspaper claims he offers something rare in a potential candidate—“political honesty.” It all suggests that McCain is the only Republican with enough integrity to survive the character attacks that are becoming inevitable in presidential races.

It seems like the politically savvy senator is making an effort to brand himself as a social centrist while still advocating the traditional fiscal conservative values his party was once well-known for. This could be perceived as a brilliant political move, but I would expect the senator to try something like this after locking up the Republican nomination. This appears to be 1992 Bill Clinton-like centrist politics, but way before conventional political wisdom would dictate such a move. On the other hand, if he recognizes that the Republican field of candidates is so weak that the Party will have no other options regarding the nomination, he is not as crazy as he appears. By this logic, he already has the nomination in the bag—as ridiculous as this seems with over 2 years before the first state caucus. But, let us assume he does have the nomination wrapped up. His premeditated move to the center will certainly give him an advantage over Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton because of her association with the far left—who he leads in a one-on-one hypothetical contest according to Angus-Reid. According to centrist logic, conservatives will always vote for the Republican, so he has that segment locked up. Hillary's reputation will alienate the swing voters, and McCain's stances on improving American world credibility (with anti-torture legislation), a return to fiscal conservatism, and an outspoken stance against 'hardcore' socially conservative judges will strike a cord with middle America. Of course, all of this depends on the fact that Republicans will recognize that their party is currently lacking the credibility needed to get another 'hardcore' conservative back in the White House. Maybe a rough mid-term election cycle will give them an education. If this is McCain's stategy, it can be likened to a footabll coach going for it on 4th down. If you make it, you're a genius; if you miss it, you're fired.

Team Billary

2005-12-11T10:43:00.000-06:00

I found an article about Bill Clinton doing some fundraising for Hillary. Maybe he'll be handling the presidential aspect of their political plan while she focuses on her Senate reelection. But, there is no doubt they are working as a team.

All eyes on Clinton as 2008 presidential race nears;
At Hillary fundraiser, Bill teases crowd with hints about election

Republicans v. Democrats v. Katrina

2005-12-08T17:27:00.000-06:00

I want to take a break from the usual Horserace topics to discuss the current political situation in my home state—Louisiana. To begin with, an outsider must understand that New Orleans was the gem of the Louisiana Democratic Party. It was a cash machine for Democratic politicians and a hot bed of Democratic voters. It was how the Louisiana Democratic Party counterbalanced the immense power the Republicans hold in rural Louisiana. Now, this balance of power that Louisianans are accustomed to seems to be threatened.

People here are anxious to see what is going to happen. A number of my classmates have dedicated their blogs to the subject (The New New Orleans and What Does the Government Owe Us?), so I’ll concern my comments with how the post-Katrina atmosphere down here could play a part in 2008. To being with, the most obvious development is the large number of displaced African-Americans that appear to be settling into their new hometowns. As Wesley Pruden of the Washington Times points out, African-Americans (most of whom voted Democrat) once comprised 70 percent of the New Orleans population. With those voters gone, it seems that Louisiana could fall in-line with the rest of our solidly ‘red’ Southern states. But, I suspect it won’t be that easy for the Republican candidates to claim victory in Louisiana. To begin with, many Louisianans are feeling increasingly betrayed by the Federal Government which is firmly in the hands of the Republican Party. Granted, it won’t be Bush up for election in 2008, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see locals put the brunt of the blame on Republican shoulders as they do control the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial Branches. While the rest of the nation took Bush’s speech from Jackson Square to be simply another staged political event, many here took it as a promise. When he said, “Federal funds will cover the great majority of the costs of repairing public infrastructure in the disaster zone, from roads and bridges to schools and water systems,” he was promising unprecedented aid that would parallel the unprecedented scale of disaster. But, now we see many members of Congress reluctant to send the help that is needed. To paraphrase Charles Zewe, one of my mass communication professors at LSU, it is becoming increasingly obvious that we’re going to have to rebuild on our own. Our history of past corruption is helping the media to create a schema in the national consciousness that suggests we cannot be trusted with large amounts of money.

But there is another schema being developed down here in Louisiana. It says we’ve been betrayed by Congress and the President. The Democratic National Party is making headway to suggest that they are the party that cares about Louisiana (though this could be just as disingenuous as Republican promises). Some Democrats are lobbying DNC Chairman Howard Dean to hold the 2008 Democratic National Convention in New Orleans. Representative Elijah Cummings (D-MD) says it is a move that would prove New Orleans “has not been forgotten,” according to BizNewOrleans.com.

If the DNC announces that it is coming to New Orleans, it will be interesting to see what happens. With the above mentioned political balance sure to be out-of-whack, it will be a hell of a political move to salvage only 9 electoral votes. Of course it is possible that Louisianans will have moved on to other important issues by then. But, as it is now, I feel some animosity toward the Republican Party in this state—which conventional political theory dictates swinging further to the right in the 3 to 5 year future.

As discussed before, this could prove to be advantageous for candidates not currently holding a seat in the U.S. Senate because they won't have to defend a vote on bills like the infamous Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century which once contained the 'bridge to nowhere.' Of course, the bridge was removed from the bill, but Alaska still gets the $432 million for their Department of Transportation to use at their discretion. Stories like these are not being forgotten in Louisiana while we watch other federal officials shove pork into bills while stripping the Katrina relief bill to its bare minimum. Potential candidates like Gov. Warner, Gov. Huckabee, Gov. Richardson, John Edwards, etc. will not have to explain such decisions like those currently serving in Congress.

Again, I am aware that this post strays from the usual content of Horserace08, but I think it is a valid inquiry into the future realities of Louisiana Presidential politics—on the party level rather than a candidate level.

Warner breaks records and sets the ECS on fire

2005-12-07T22:55:00.000-06:00

Virginia Governor Mark Warner is getting all the miles he can out of his flavor-of-the-month status. Last night he set a Virginia state record for most money raised in one day (at one event, nonetheless). At a $1000/plate dinner in the affluent Virgina town of McLean, he raised $2.5 million for his new PAC, Forward Together. According to dailypress.com, the potential presidential candidate prophetically told his contributors—most of whom donated the $5000 maximum—that “In extraordinary times, there are extraordinary opportunities. If we can do it in Virginia, we can do it in America." What exactly is 'it'? Of course, he's implying that though the current political landscape favors Republicans, there is an opportunity to put the country and political agenda back in the hands of Democrats.

For those who understand that winning the 'Solid South' is key for a Democratic presidential victory in the modern age of presidential politics, Warner has a number of attributes that puts his candidacy in the same tier as Clinton, Bayh, and Edwards. To begin with, he's a successful Southern governor from a traditionally Republican state. He has a reputation for being a centrist because of his ruralist approach to gun control and his commitment to fiscal conservatism (though he did raise taxes in Virginia during his term, he did so after cutting the budget where he could).

Another interesting point to make is that he will soon be joining the ranks of Edwards and Giuliani as potential candidates not holding an elected office. As some Horserace readers have pointed out, this may not be the disadvantage it appears to be. To begin with, he will not have to defend a Senate vote on the Iraq war which will leave his options open regarding how to address the whole war issue. In fact, being sans a Senate voting record will essentially leave his options open on all foreign affairs issues—though it will also leave him open to 'no experience' allegations.

The only major disadvantages he'll be facing in the immediate future is his record on tax increases and his recent decision to commute the death sentence of a convicted murderer, Robin Lovitt, because the case lacked the DNA evidence that Warner felt was requisite for the death penalty. This has one major implication for him; it will spike concerns that he is shifting from his current centrist position (which some Democrats feel is necessary to win the White House) to an extreme left ideology for the sake of winning the Democratic nomination. However, I don't foresee this being a real issue because the voters can't be expected to remember his decision on the Lovitt case three years from now.

There is no denying the fact that he thinking about a White House bid. He's recently been to New Hampshire and South Carolina where he received warm welcomes from political elites in those states. And, according to a source in the Louisiana Democratic Party, Democrats refuse to run two senators in the 2008 election. This makes his candidacy all the more appealing for party leaders.

The most interesting aspect of the recent Warner developments are the implications his $2.5 million PAC campaign fund has on the Election Championship Series (ECS). When punching in $2.5 million into the Warner 'cash in bank' and 'money raised' slots, he is propelled to a first place tie with Clinton—both with a 0.61 power rating. Oh how exciting this Horserace is turning out to be.

Inaugural ECS

2005-12-06T23:22:00.000-06:00

Here it is! The first Horserace08 Election Championship Series rankings:

Republicans:

1. Bill Frist (0.97)
2. John McCain (0.80)
3. Rudy Giuliani (0.53)
4. Condeleeza Rice (0.45)
5. George Allen (0.42)
6. Jeb Bush (0.32)
7. Newt Gingrich (0.29)
7. Chuck Hagel (0.29)
9. Mike Huckabee (0.26)

Democrats:

1. Hillary Rodham-Clinton (0.67)
2. Evan Bayh (0.46)
3. John Kerry (0.41)
4. Mark Warner (0.35)
5. John Edwards (0.22)
6. Tom Vilsack (0.19)
7. Bill Richardson (.018)
8. Joe Corzine (0.14)
9. Russ Feingold (0.12)
10. Wesley Clark (0.11)

A few notes:
The number you see next to the name is all the following perimeters that were considered (normalized) weighted as follows:
-Betting odds from Trade Sports—35%
-PAC cash in the bank—25%
-Number of blogs referencing the candidate according to Technorati—20%
-PAC money raised—15%
-thenextprez.blogspot.com weekly human poll—5%

There were a few candidates that either do not have a PAC or I could not find the money his/her PAC raised. For those instances, 'money raised' and 'cash in bank' columns were normalized—the amounts of the other candidates were averaged and that number was used for candidates without applicable information. Granted this isn't a perfect system, but I'm pleased with the results.

It is worth noting that Bill Frist has raised an exorbitant amount of money thus far (almost $2 million) and has not spent much of it. This greatly contributed to his #1 ranking. Some may see this as a flaw in the ECS, but I think it's a testament to how well it emulates the Bowl Championship Series which is prone to ranking controversies.

Questions or comments on the ECS? I'd like to hear them. The ECS is a work in progress; so let me know how I can make it better.

Daschle 2008???

2005-12-05T10:21:00.000-06:00

keloland.com reports:

The former Democratic Senate leader, Tom Daschle, says he's not ruling out a run for elective office in the future.
In an interview with The Associated Press, the South Dakotan said Democrats must run a presidential candidate in 2008 who can resonate with voters across the country. Daschle says energy, health care and the Iraq war will be major issues.
He has called for all troops to be withdrawn from by the end of 2007 and says President Bush's foreign policy is "broken."
Daschle has given speeches in several cities, has addressed a Democratic Party dinner in the politically important state of Iowa and has set up a new political action committee.
He works at the law firm of Alston and Bird in Washington, where he advises clients on the prospects of legislation. He cannot yet lobby members of Congress, since he left the Senate less than a year ago after losing to John Thune.

Pretty interesting to think about an ousted ex-Senator still eying the White House. Some would say he does not have a chance to win the presidency if he can´t win in his own state, but those critics should remember that Daschle does have extraordinary national name recognition. Of course, the last thing most people remember about Daschle is that he was voted out of office after being billed as an ´obstructionist´ by the Republican Party in mid-term elections. Will his 20 years of Senate experience count for anything in the public eye? I think probably not. He will have to combat many critics, including other hopefuls from his own party, who will gladly remind the American people of his most recent political history. He has an uphill battle on his hands.

A complete list

2005-11-30T21:15:00.000-06:00

Here is as comprehensive a list of major party candidates as I can come up with. (In no particular order.)

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Fmr. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC)
Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)
Fmr. General Wesley Clark
Sen. Hillary Rodham-Clinton (D-NY)
Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)
Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM)
Gov. Marc Warner (D-VA)
Sen. and Gov. Elect Jon Corzine (D-NJ)
Sen. George Allen (R-VA)
Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS)
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL)
Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN)
Fmr. Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
Fmr. NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE)
Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Gov. George Pataki (R-NY)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA)
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)

If I've missed anybody, let me know. I hope now that there is a list, I can avoid creating a new post to introduce each candidate (as I planned to do). Now we can get down to substative information.

Source: Hotline Blog

HILLPAC will morph

2005-11-29T21:05:00.000-06:00

Senator and potential Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is 'double-dipping.' According to Newday.com's evaluation of Senator Clinton's FEC (Federal Election Commission) quarterly reports, the New York senator has been paying eight full-time Senate staffers (that's government workers who receive a paycheck from the U.S. Senate) to work overtime for her 2006 Senate campaign. The money is coming from Friends of Hillary—her Senate re-election committee—and HILLPAC—her leadership committee which has been charged with being nothing more than the caterpillar that will soon morph into a full-fledged Presidential campaign according to Human Events Online. There is certainly nothing illegal about what the Senator is doing. In fact, many senators participate in the practice. However, what is significant about Hillary's overtime workers is that there are eight of them and they are being paid by two political action committees. Generally, a senator will have one or two of their staffers moonlight for the campaign, but the fact that Hillary has eight burning the midnight oil suggests that something bigger is going on. For example, Tamera Luzzatto, Clinton's Washington chief-of-staff has her $135,000 Senate salary augmented at $1,700 a month by the two PACs (September totals).

HILLPAC is not an incredibly well-funded PAC, boasting only about $3,000 in the bank after donating some money to other politicians affiliated with the PAC and paying the senator's overtime workers. Friends of Hillary, however, reports a $14M war-chest. (FEC report)

I don't think there is anything unfair about what Hillary Clinton is doing here. It is perfectly legal to pay your Senate office workers extra money from your war-chest if they are doing political consulting on the side. According to the FEC, there is nothing wrong with it as long as you report where that money is coming from. The point is that while she is concerning herself with her Senate re-election campaign (which Friends of Hillary is dedicated to), she is also building a shell for her presidential bid in 2008 (HILLPAC). It is obvious that HILLPAC is not actually a committee dedicated to “[helping] candidates who support a cleaner environment, better schools, quality health care and a strong homeland defense” because it donates little money and provides no services to the politicians it supports. She is building an organization that will allow her to store her endorsements, political masterminds, and war-chest until the appropriate time arrives to apply them to the 2008 horserace. The fact is that Hillary, and Bill, are political geniuses—regardless of their politics. They know where the loopholes are, and they're going to need every loophole they can get if they want to defeat whatever political powerhouse the GOP puts up in 2008.

Editor's Note: I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving. The ECS is on the way.

Developing the ECS

2005-11-21T09:55:00.000-06:00

In the spirit of the 2008 Horserace, Horserace08 is currently developing the Election Championship Series. The ECS will be a computer-based ranking system similar to the Bowl Championship Series used for ranking bowl-eligible college football teams. The ECS will take into account varying factors in order to develop a weekly ranking of the many potential candidates for the next presidential election. Such factors include, but are not limited to, money raised, good and bad mainstream media coverage received, name recognition, Senate or House voting records, etc. Horserace08 must credit The Next Prez for the original idea of a weekly ranking system. However, the ECS will be less narrative in nature in order to provide a new way of evaluating the wide array of candidates that the mainstream media are considering viable presidential hopefuls. Horserace08 will be developing the system over the Thanksgiving holiday, so stay tuned...

If you have any suggestions for the development of the ECS (including factors that should be included), leave a comment. It's an Open Source Project, so everyone's input is welcome. And don't worry, USC won't be able to cheat their way to the top of this system.

Edwards was 'wrong'

2005-11-16T14:35:00.000-06:00

The Washington Post published an essay by former senator and vice presidential candidate John Edwards on Sunday. The essay began, “I was wrong.” Edwards wrote that he—and other public officials—was misled by the Bush administration's presentation of what he called manipulated military intelligence on Iraq's WMD capabilities. He also wrote that America is lacking is true moral leadership under Bush. He went on to describe what such a moral leadership would look like. He wrote:

“First, we need to remove the image of an imperialist America from the landscape of Iraq. American contractors who have taken unfair advantage of the turmoil in Iraq need to leave Iraq. If that means Halliburton subsidiary KBR, then KBR should go. Such departures, and the return of the work to Iraqi businesses, would be a real statement about our hopes for the new nation.

We also need to show Iraq and the world that we will not stay there forever. We've reached the point where the large number of our troops in Iraq hurts, not helps, our goals. Therefore, early next year, after the Iraqi elections, when a new government has been created, we should begin redeployment of a significant number of troops out of Iraq. This should be the beginning of a gradual process to reduce our presence and change the shape of our military's deployment in Iraq. Most of these troops should come from National Guard or Reserve forces.

That will still leave us with enough military capability, combined with better-trained Iraqis, to fight terrorists and continue to help the Iraqis develop a stable country.

Second, this redeployment should work in concert with a more effective training program for Iraqi forces. We should implement a clear plan for training and hard deadlines for certain benchmarks to be met. To increase incentives, we should implement a schedule showing that, as we certify Iraqi troops as trained and equipped, a proportional number of U.S. troops will be withdrawn.

Third, we must launch a serious diplomatic process that brings the world into this effort. We should bring Iraq's neighbors and our key European allies into a diplomatic process to get Iraq on its feet. The president needs to create a unified international front.”

This essay would suggest that Edwards is still eying the White House. Many pundits have speculated about Edwards plans for the future now the he is no longer holding a public office. He is currently director of UNC-Chapel Hill's Center on Poverty, Work, and Opportunity. The Center's goals are to restore working American's chances at achieving the 'promise of America.' Other indidcations of his intentions to run can be found in his 2004 concession speech in which he said, “You can be disappointed, but you cannot walk away. This fight has just begun.”
Edwards could find himself to be at a considerable disadvantage in the 2008 election because he is the only potential candidate to date that is not currently holding an elected office—though Mark Warner will be joining him in that category soon. However, his willingness to admit he was wrong could strike a good chord with the growing number of Americans who are beginning the question the Bush administration's intentions in Iraq.

Jersey and Virginia speak volumes

2005-11-09T11:24:00.000-06:00

Last night's off-year elections could prove to have presidential implications as Democrats maintained control of the governor's mansions in Virginia and New Jersey.

Virginia—Virginia Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D) won his gubernatorial race after defeating Republican Jerry Kilgore by more than 5%. Kaine's victory came despite a last hour appearance by President G.W. Bush in support of Kilgore. Kaine had the benefit of current Virgina Governor Mark Warner campaigning for him. Warner is an incredibly popular governor but is prohibited by state law from running for a second term. Some pundits are beginning to say that Kaine's victory could mean a spike in support for a 2008 Warner presidential bid. The Governor hasn't commented on the possibility, but many liberals seem excited about the prospect of a Democrat done-good from a Republican state.

New Jersey—Current Democratic Senator Jim Corzine won the Garden State's gubernatorial race last night after a bitter, costly campaign that included a personal attack on Corzine from his ex-wife in which she said that the Senator let his family down and would probably do the same to New Jersey. The fact that it was a heated campaign is not the issue here. What is important is that Corzine is giving up his seat in the U.S. Senate, a seat that cost him $60 million of his own fortune to obtain, to take over as Jersey's governor (the gubernatorial campaign cost him about $30 million). Some bloggers say that there is no possibility that Corzine will run in 2008 because he lacks the political machinery to do so.

The fact is that no senator has won a presidential election since Kennedy. And there doesn't seem to be any logical reason why a man of Corzine's background—CEO of Goldman Sachs and Co.—would not only opt for a less powerful position, but actually pay $30 million to give up a seat in the Senate for the governorship of New Jersey. Granted, as governor of New Jersey, he will appoint his replacement (who will probably report back to Corzine after every session). But the only obvious reason that Senator Corzine would make the move he did is because he believes it gives him a strategic advantage in a presidential race. Will it be 2008 or 2012? Maybe the fact that Corzine said, "I want to thank the people of New Jersey for rejecting the Bush-Rove tactics that we see in politics," in his victory speech speaks to speculation about showdown with the GOP.

Code of Ethics

2005-11-07T10:14:00.000-06:00

All readers are encouraged to comment on the posts found on this blog, but I do ask that you be respectful of everyone's right to blog. So, in order to establish a more perfect blog, I'll assure you that I'm going to follow this code of ethics and I ask you to do the same.

1.Accuracy—I reserve the right to be wrong, when applicable. I will always do my best to find reliable information on the topics covered in each post. However, as I'm sure you know, reliable information can sometimes be difficult to find on the Internet. So, if you ever find a factual error on my blog, please comment on it so that I can address the issue. I will make corrections to factual errors in a timely manner. However, I will not re-post the comment in a new post. I will simply change the error in its original post and be sure to make my readers aware that a change has been made on that post.
2.Reliability—I can't promise that I'll be posting everyday because I'm sort of busy this year. However, I will do my best to post on the most important things going on in the 2008 Presidential Campaign in a timely manner. If I were you, I'd expect at least 2 posts per week.
3.Offensive Comments—I ask that my readers respect my readers. This is not a Democratic candidate blog or a Republican candidate blog, and that was done intentionally. I do not want the scope of this blog to be narrowed by the political parties. However, this will require a bit of tolerance from some readers. Please do not personally attack any readers who have commented on this blog. Doing so will result in a deleted comment and possibly a ban from the blog.
4.Colorful Language—I do not mind colorful language on this blog. If you want to say that John McCain is a dick, go for it. However, I do raise issue with using colorful language without qualifiers. If you are going to call one of the candidates discussed a profanity, back it up with some original thought and research. Let us know why McCain is a dick so that we can better understand your stance.
Obscenities directed at other readers, however, will not be tolerated. Politicians are public figures and have accepted the fact that people will call them dicks. Bloggers are regular people trying to take part in this great experiment called Democracy, so give 'em a break.
5.And finally—I reserve the right to change the code of ethics as issues arise in Horserace08. Think of it as a 'Common Law' system.

Biden kicks off in NH

2005-11-02T12:47:00.000-06:00

Democratic Senator Joe Biden of Delaware spoke in Manchester, NH Tuedsay night while fund raising for Manchester Mayor Bob Baines. At the event, Biden expressed his discontent with the popular view that Democrats are “disconnected from where [they] grew up.” He went on to say that, “We used to get those middle-class votes, [but the Republicans] convinced the American people, enough of them, that we are out of touch, that we don't believe in God, that we only care about gays and we don't have any connection with ordinary folks." And to cheers, he added, "And I want to tell you I'm sick and tired of it."

Biden also commented on the plans of some members of his party to move the first Democratic primaries out of Iowa and New Hampshire. He said to do so would prove to be “a big mistake.”

Biden is the only one of the possible candidates to announce that he intends to run for the White House in 2008. He made the announcement last summer. However, at the Manchester event he seemed to have reservations about the campaign. He said that he was traveling around to find out if anyone in American, other than himself, thinks he should be president. Either way, Biden claimed, a Democrat needs to get elected this time around.

In addition to Biden, both Massachusetts Senator and 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee John Kerry and Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh are visiting Manchester this week to show their support for Mayor Baines. All three of these men (Biden, Kerry, and Bayh) are reportedly considering a run for the White House in 2008. According to PoliticsNH.com, Biden's trip to New Hampshire makes him the eighth potential Democratic candidate to visit the state.

Condi is being drafted, reluctantly

2005-10-26T12:38:00.000-05:00

While there is certainly no shortage of potential candidates for the 2008 election to discuss, a recent poll pitting Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice against conventional Republican presidential candidates sparked mass curiosity throughout the mainstream media this week. The poll, conducted by Marist College Institute (which can be found on the Angus Reid web site) shows Dr. Rice is tied for first within the Republican Party. According to the poll, Dr. Rice is tied for first with Rudy Giuliani—both garnering 21% percent of the respondents. In a close third is Senator John McCain with 19%.

So, what does this mean? Is Dr. Rice interested in a run for the White House? According to a recent interview with Tim Russert, no. Dr. Rice has said that she is flattered by the fact that she has been asked to run for the office, but that is not something she wants to do with her life. However, her denials are only sparking more interest in a Rice campaign as a grassroots movement to recruit her into action is forming throughout the country. According to the Detroit Free Press, ‘Americans for Dr. Rice’ is a grassroots internet movement that is beginning to take hold. Their goal is to persuade Dr. Rice into joining the race by demonstrating the widespread support that she would be able to tap into if she would just run. Matt May, the head of the Michigan arm of Americans for Dr. Rice, said “her pedigree is just amazing, her abilities are great…She, more than any other potential candidate out there -- and that includes Republicans -- understands the threat of terrorism. I think that's the No. 1 one issue.” There could be some wisdom to this claim. As Secretary of State, Dr. Rice is in a unique position to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the state of the world and threats to the American people than any other potential candidate. If she were to join the race, she would be able to speak intelligently about the problems facing our country.

Americans for Dr. Rice are not the only proponents of a 2008 Rice candidacy. Former Clinton advisor, Dick Morris, has come out in support of Dr. Rice while promoting his new book Condi vs. Hillary. The fact that Morris would switch alliances from the Clinton camp to one of the foremost neo-conservatives is curious for most people. When he was asked to explain, he said that he hasn’t changed his support, Bill and Hillary “switched Clintons” on him. He went on to attack Hillary Clinton saying, “Hillary’s next new idea would be her first.” I find this to be quite interesting considering in the same Detroit Free Press piece cited above, it was revealed that in a hypothetical contest between to two women, Clinton is leading 50-41 in a Marist poll.

Another point I find interesting in the prospect of a Rice campaign is the fact that, if elected, she would be the first African-American president and be from a party that enjoys little African-American support. With G.W. Bush polling at 2% with African-Americans, a Rice candidacy seems like just the thing to bring some African-Americans back to the Republican camp. But, I’m not sure this is true. Rice does not seem to connect with blacks like other politicians do, Sen. Barack Obama for example. She does not make a point to speak on civil rights, oppose her party’s stance on affirmative action, or allude to her upbringing in Birmingham, a city abound in civil rights issues at the time she was a child, as a distinguishing factor in the development of her character or her political beliefs. Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post proposed a theory for why she does not seem to connect to blacks—she never experienced the events that shaped the American black consciousness. When growing up in Birmingham, Rice lived a part of town called Titusville. Titusville was composed of the few wealthy, affluent black families in the town. They never faced racial intimidation because they kept themselves in a “bubble” in order to ignore the events going on outside. While other blacks were subjected to the Jim Crowe mentalities that reigned at that time, she was learning piano and ballet. It is this upbringing that allows Rice to comment on race, but not feel anything about the issue, according to Robinson. If this is the case, a Rice candidacy may not fit into Karl Rove’s format for capturing the black vote from Democrats. Putting up a ‘white-washed’ African-American and calling her the first black president is a trick that even ‘The Architect’ cannot pull off.

Giulini to consider it, splits NY support

2005-10-03T15:03:00.000-05:00

“I will consider it next year,” was former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s response to whether he will run for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. The fact that he is thinking about thinking about running proves to be quite an exciting prospect for many New Yorkers as 49% of voters said that they want the former mayor to join the race. However, Rudy seems to be cautious of promising a bid in the next election. While speaking at a business leadership conference in Copenhagen, Denmark on October 2, he said, “Sometimes you warm up and get ready and you don't get in and pitch.”

While Giuliani may be apprehensive about promising a bid in 2008, some of his friends see it as a foregone conclusion. Guy Molinari, a former NYC borough president and friend of Rudy said, “If you watch what he's doing -- he's been traveling across the country, he's been giving speeches in pivotal states, and he seems to have created alliances with individuals who have a strong political say.”

Though the horserace is only beginning, Giuliani does not have to venture far from home to find potential powerhouse rivals for 2008. New York Republican Governor George Pataki has launched ads in Iowa which discuss a possible White House run. In addition to the ads, Pataki announced that he will not seek reelection in the next New York gubernatorial campaign, possibly in preparation for the big show in ’08.

From outside the Republican Party, Democratic Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is another potential contender. The fact that there are three prominent New York political figures considering a presidential bid in 2008 is proving to be a handicap for the candidates in their home state. New York voters are split over which of their elected or formerly elected officials should go for the bid. According to the same poll of 707 registered New York voters referenced above, 40% of New Yorkers want Hillary to make a run, 17% want to see Pataki go for it, and 49% are pulling for Giuliani ‘get in and pitch’ during the 2008 horserace.

References:
Associated Press
Staten Island Advance
Angus Reid Consultants (www.angus-reid.com)

Philosophy

2005-10-02T19:27:00.000-05:00

As stated above, the goal of this blog is to provide information and discussion on the 2008 presidential election. All readers are welcome and encouraged to comment on the posts. If you have information on a candidate that I haven't mentioned yet, please let me know. As of now, all possible candidates are up for discussion. As the election grows nearer, there may be a need to select a pool of top contenders to focus on for logistical reasons. The only thing I ask my readers to avoid is regurgitating "Crossfire" and "O'Reilly Factor"-esque arguments on the blog. Do a little internet research and thinking before commenting.